We often think that growth is a good thing—that it's healthy for an industry.
But it's possible that it happens so fast that it could become a problem.
This is the scenario Tim Stronge laid out for PTC 2020 attendees as he answered the question: how much growth is too much?
To start, Tim turned to annual growth rates, using the Trans-Atlantic as a benchmark route. Relative growth spiked on this route in the last few years; big content providers pushed out huge amounts of capacity within their own private networks on Atlantic fibers. And this practice has accelerated growth across the industry.
At first glance, this growth doesn't look too scary. Especially with the assumption that growth deceleration is on the horizon. In fact, at the end of TeleGeography's forecast way out in 2035, we only see 25% annual growth on this route.
For perspective, we haven't seen growth that slow on any major route since the internet was invented.
Tim Stronge is VP of Research at TeleGeography. His responsibilities span across many of our research practices including network infrastructure, bandwidth demand modeling, cross-border traffic flows, and telecom services pricing.