Can you stop a cable break before it happens? We know how and why cable faults occur, but could damage be mitigated beforehand?
Building more cables means more opportunities for faults, at least in theory, and it’s why industry professionals are increasingly interested in cable maintenance.
Case in point, Research Director Alan Mauldin will soon take the stage at SubOptic 2025 to present the research paper, The Future of Submarine Cable Maintenance: Trends, Challenges, and Strategies, with co-author Mike Constable of Infa-Analytics.
Alongside Senior Research Analyst Lane Burdette, the trio developed this paper to serve as a common, data-based reference point for the industry on the sustainability of maintenance challenges. To do so, they analyzed datasets on marine maintenance capabilities and cable investment projections to forecast how an increase in cable kilometers could impact maintenance vessel requirements.
As part of this work, the team at OceanIQ kindly supplied historical fault rate data for analysis.
OceanIQ has a long history in the subsea telecommunications and power cable space, with extensive knowledge of the ocean floor. After getting to know their team through this project, we were fortunate enough to speak with OceanIQ Managing Director Gail Clark about how their research is addressing challenges posed by climate change.
We discussed fault prediction, collaboration with the fishing industry, and the use of historic data for future cable trend analysis.
Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
How is OceanIQ's analysis evolving to include climate-influenced risks to subsea cables?
First comes a desktop study. A desktop study details all the possible influences on cable route security. The entirety of a submarine telecommunication cable system is exposed to the potential hazards associated with climate change, from landing station to landing station, so at OceanIQ, we take a comprehensive approach to cable route security by incorporating climate change considerations into the planning phase with a dedicated section as part of the report.
We believe it to be a distinct challenge. From rises in sea level, increased numbers of tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, and iceberg damage to rising water temperatures resulting in changing fishing patterns, and sediment and seabed movements exposing cables to potential damage. And it’s a challenge that is continuing to grow and shift alongside evolving environmental factors.
Utilizing our cable fault database, which analyzes over 7,000 historical global cable faults, we're able to easily identify high-risk areas and anticipate potential threats, specifically differentiating between the type of expected faults based on previous trends. And more specifically in this period of environmental change, detect any shifts in patterns that are emerging, such as fish migrations bringing fishing to a new area of the seabed or new offshore wind farms affecting shipping and anchoring faults. The OceanIQ team’s extensive experience allows us to interpret the wealth of data that we have built over many decades, from simple facts and figures into meaningful intelligence.
This proactive strategy allows for more informed decisions regarding cable type, installation methods, and additional protective measures, including burial requirements, ensuring long-term cable integrity even as environmental conditions evolve. This forward-thinking approach is crucial for adapting to the growing challenges posed by climate change.
How does OceanIQ's fault prediction model account for the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events?
We can use historic cable fault data within our database to understand the likelihood of cable faults as well as their causes—whether that be an area prone to something such as fishing and anchor damage, or it could be a part of the world where tropical cyclones are becoming increasingly regular—leaving scope for damage through scouring and abrasion, or seabed movement exposing previously buried assets.
Seabed canyons with cables that have previously not seen any faults may now start to experience them due to increased outflow from rivers as a result of extreme weather events.
By analyzing the interaction between cables and canyons, we can identify patterns and trends in fault occurrences—looking at both historic and recent faults to see if there is any change over time—and start to predict likely future fault rates as the new subsea landscape evolves alongside above-ground weather and climate shifts.
How can the subsea cable industry collaborate with other sectors to address the challenges posed by climate change?
As previously discussed, it’s likely that fluctuating sea temperatures and levels will come hand-in-hand with changes to fishing practices. This could be deeper trawling or operating in different areas altogether. Working closely with the fishing industry to understand these changes, and to be proactive in seeing the trends happening rather than reacting later, will give us better real-time insights into the changes and likely impacts upon cable routing, maintenance, and fault rates.
Flooding of terrestrial infrastructure, or cable exposure in the surf zone and beach could become real risks as the impacts of climate change are realized in future years. Close collaboration with peers in the terrestrial telecom sector should help us gain the foresight to better plan and understand these hazards, and work in partnership to mitigate them for the safety and integrity of a cable system.
Environmental organizations will have a deep understanding of the recent impacts that weather patterns have had on both protected species and river outflows. As species migrate in reaction to climate change, this is likely to change the constraints on where cables can land, as well as the level of mitigation required in different areas. Likewise, intensified sediment can cause turbidity flows or erosion/currents in areas previously unaffected. Working together to better understand how this impacts subsea cables can help to address just some of the challenges posed by climate change, together.
From OceanIQ's perspective, what are key steps to better communication and cooperation between the fishing industry and cable operators to minimize cable damage?
Establishing a fishing liaison is an incredibly important aspect of a project.
We recognize that early engagement with fishing organizations is an initial step, vital to any project. Working with unbiased fishing liaison officers (FLO) who have good local knowledge and existing relationships, we advocate open, two-way communication between the fishing industry and cable operators.
From workshops with the project team where the fishing stakeholders can learn about the project and voice any initial feedback, to port tours, which are ideal for face-to-face interactions to raise concerns as well as share agreed clearance distances.
Based on OceanIQ’s recent experiences, de-conflicting potential issues at such an early stage is an excellent way to build a good working relationship with local fisheries stakeholders that helps the project run smoothly for the remaining lifecycle. Early fishing engagement workshops also mitigate and reduce the overall number of fishing disruptions and compensation claims to the project owner, saving potentially tens of thousands of pounds per claim.
It’s natural that throughout the project lifecycle, there may be conflict between local fishery stakeholders and scheduled operations. Even though engagement and mitigation have been conducted from the earliest stage possible, it’s not uncommon that when issuing a Notice to Mariners, the sender may receive some replies from stakeholders. In these instances, the FLO can effectively and efficiently resolve any unwanted conflicts, having built a strong, positive relationship with their contacts.
By involving local stakeholders from the beginning, you can anticipate and mitigate issues, reducing disruptions and potential compensation claims. This proactive strategy not only fosters goodwill, but contributes to a project's overall success.
How can we use historic data to predict future cable trends?
Leveraging the 3 million kilometers of rich data held within our GeoCable dataset and cable fault heat maps, we can complete trend analysis on cable faults.
The average length of time that a cable is in service is increasing, and the number of in-service cables at any one time is continuing to grow, but there aren’t any more faults now than, say, 10 years ago. This suggests that the fault rate per kilometer of cable has decreased, indicating either improved reliability in design, better route planning, increased awareness of the hazards associated with subsea cables, or a combination of all of these factors.
One factor that we believe has contributed is the advent of Automatic Identification System (AIS) usage; this has significantly contributed to reducing cable faults by providing better monitoring and tracking of vessels, allowing the industry to warn vessels of their proximity to cables in real time which helps prevent accidental damage to cables.
Increased cable fault awareness campaigns such as cable awareness charts and port visits that highlight the locations and importance of avoiding cables have also played a role in reducing fault rates.
Only 10% of fiber optic cable faults in the last 25 years can be attributed to system failures. The rest are down to external aggression—in the main, from fishing (48%) and anchoring (19%), to seismic activity (7%), abrasion (4%) and other natural causes.
While kilometers of in-service cable are increasing, and we have seen that fault numbers have maintained relatively steadily in recent years, it gives us a solid foundation to predict what the future holds. However, we’ll need to continue to monitor closely to truly understand the impacts of extreme weather events, to evolve our route planning to reflect the very latest intelligence, and to be better prepared to weather whatever storms are ahead.
How can cable fault heat maps and prediction models integrate with real-time data to provide more dynamic, actionable insights?
Cable fault heat maps can be used as a layer within real-time monitoring software, where high traffic usually equals higher fault rates.
This will help us understand if traffic rates increasing in a certain area are then likely to result in us seeing an increase in cable faults. Equally, if there is a noticeable decrease in traffic in what was once a high fault rate area, possibly due to changes in fishing practices brought on by climate change-induced sea temperature rises, for example, then these areas could now become open for cable routing where they would once have been avoided.
As well as informing route planning at the design stage, these predictive factors can also be utilized over existing cables to estimate future fault rates and therefore plan maintenance budgets more efficiently.
Is there any missing intelligence that could be valuable to planning cable systems?
Both bathymetry data and detailed seabed sediment intelligence is always an issue at the pre-survey stage.
The better the quality of the available data at the outset, the less re-routeing is likely to be required at the survey stage.
Similarly, we are seeing more and more “dark” vessels who opt to not to switch their AIS on, or just as un-helpfully, put out erroneous location information. Making AIS mandatory and ensuring its accurate use would provide a clearer picture of vessel movements and help in understanding the root cause of faults as well as helping to prevent them in the future.
Does fault data dovetail into other services that can improve the early planning stages of a cable project for customers?
By providing detailed fault rate heatmaps and analysis reports that outline the number of faults that can be expected on each kilometer of a cable, within a specific area, per year using our cable fault data, OceanIQ can help companies proactively manage their cable infrastructure.
This data-driven approach can reduce downtime and maintenance costs by informing better planning for quicker, more efficient responses to incidents. The data can be integrated within a customer’s own GIS software, or we can utilize it in-house at OceanIQ to give an added layer of confidence in the route planning and initial route engineering stages.
